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41.
Increasing water demands, higher standards of living, depletion of resources of acceptable quality and excessive water pollution due to agricultural and industrial expansions have caused intense social and political predicaments, and conflicting issues among water consumers. The available techniques commonly used in reservoir optimization/operation do not consider interaction, behavior and preferences of water users, reservoir operator and their associated modeling procedures, within the stochastic modeling framework. In this paper, game theory is used to present the associated conflicts among different consumers due to limited water. Considering the game theory fundamentals, the Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game with perfect information (PSDNG) model is developed, which assumes that the decision maker has sufficient (perfect) information regarding the associated randomness of reservoir operation parameters. The simulated annealing approach (SA) is applied as a part of the proposed stochastic framework, which makes the PSDNG solution conceivable. As a case study, the proposed model is applied to the Zayandeh-Rud river basin in Iran with conflicting demands. The results are compared with alternative reservoir operation models, i.e., Bayesian stochastic dynamic programming (BSDP), sequential genetic algorithm (SGA) and classical dynamic programming regression (DPR). Results show that the proposed model has the ability to generate reservoir operating policies, considering interactions of water users, reservoir operator and their preferences. 相似文献
42.
Non-Darcy mixed convective flow of water due to external pressure gradient and buoyancy opposed forces are considered in a vertical channel filled with porous medium, which can be either isotropic or anisotropic. The linear theory of stability analysis has been used to numerically investigate the dependence of the transition behavior of the fully developed basic flow on the permeability of the medium. Numerical experiments indicate that mainly two main instability modes appear: Rayleigh–Taylor (R–T) and buoyant instability. For Darcy numbers (Da) ?10−9, R–T instability dominates within the entire Reynolds number (Re) range considered here. It was also found that for the same Re, the fully developed base flow is highly unstable (stable) for porous media with high (low) permeability. Further, it was seen that the disturbance isotherm cells migrate from the channel walls toward the centerline when permeability is reduced. Reducing the permeability by one order of magnitude (corresponding to a decrease of Darcy number from 10−6 to 10−7) increases base flow stability approximately 20-fold. For higher Reynolds numbers, buoyant, mixed and shear instability of the basic flow were found when Da was increased from 10−7 to 10−3. However, for cases in which permeability and porosity behaved as suggested by Carman–Kozeny relation (CKR), buoyant stability was the only mode of instability. Critical values of the Rayleigh (Ra) and Darcy (Da) numbers in the R–T mode of instability were related to each other by the hyperbolic function RaDa = −2.465. 相似文献
43.
Stochastic multi-site generation of daily weather data 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Malika Khalili François Brissette Robert Leconte 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(6):837-849
Spatial autocorrelation is a correlation between the values of a single variable, considering their geographical locations.
This concept has successfully been used for multi-site generation of daily precipitation data (Khalili et al. in J Hydrometeorol
8(3):396–412, 2007). This paper presents an extension of this approach. It aims firstly to obtain an accurate reproduction
of the spatial intermittence property in synthetic precipitation amounts, and then to extend the multi-site approach to the
generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation data. Monthly spatial exponential functions
have been developed for each weather station according to the spatial dependence of the occurrence processes over the watershed,
in order to fulfill the spatial intermittence condition in the synthetic time series of precipitation amounts. As was the
case for the precipitation processes, the multi-site generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar
radiation data is realized using spatially autocorrelated random numbers. These random numbers are incorporated into the weakly
stationary generating process, as with the Richardson weather generator, and with no modifications made. Suitable spatial
autocorrelations of random numbers allow the reproduction of the observed daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation
correlations. The Peribonca River Basin watershed is used to test the performance of the proposed approaches. Results indicate
that the spatial exponential functions succeeded in reproducing an accurate spatial intermittence in the synthetic precipitation
amounts. The multi-site generation approach was successfully applied for the weather data, which were adequately generated,
while maintaining efficient daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation correlations. 相似文献
44.
Comprehensive evaluation of regional flood frequency analysis by L- and LH-moments. I. A re-visit to regional homogeneity 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ali Meshgi Davar Khalili 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(1):119-135
As part I of a sequence of two papers, previously developed L-moments by Hosking (J R Stat Soc Ser B Methodol 52(2):105–124,
1990), and the LH-moments by Wang (Water Resour Res 33(12):2841–2848, 1997) are re-visited. New relationships are developed for regional homogeneity analysis by the LH-moments, and further establishment
of regional homogeneity is investigated. Previous works of Hosking (J R Stat Soc Ser B Methodol 52(2):105–124, 1990) and Wang (Water Resour Res 33(12):2841–2848, 1997) on L-moments and LH-moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution are extended to the generalized Pareto
(GPA) and the generalized logistic (GLO) distributions. The Karkhe watershed, located in western Iran is used as a case study
area. Regional homogeneity was investigated by first assuming the entire study area as one regional cluster. Then the entire
study area was designated “homogeneous” by the L-moments (L); and was designated “heterogeneous” by all four levels of the
LH-moments (L1 to L4). The k-means method was used to investigate the case of two regional clusters. All levels of the L- and LH-moments designated the
upper watershed (region A), “homogeneous”, and the lower watershed (region B) “possibly-homogeneous”. The L3 level of the GPA and the L4 level of the GLO were selected for regions A and B, respectively. Wang (Water Resour Res 33(12):2841–2848, 1997) identified a reversing trend in improved performance of the GEV distribution at the LH-moments level of L3 (during the goodness-of-fit test). Similar results were also obtained in this research for the GEV distribution. However,
for the case of the GPA distribution the reversing trend started at L4 for region A; and at L2 for region B. As for the case of the GLO, an improved performance was observed for all levels (moving from L to L4); for both regions. 相似文献
45.
46.
This paper describes the application of a structural optimization approach combined with the finite element method for the optimal design of a raft–pile foundation system. The analysis takes into account the non-linear behaviour of the soil medium and the piles. For the optimization process, the sensitivity analysis is carried out using the approximate semi-analytical method while the constraint approximation is obtained from the combination of extended Bi-point and Lagrangian polynomial approximation methods. The objective function of the problem is the cost of the foundation. The design variables are the raft thickness, cross-section, length and number of piles. The maximum displacement and differential displacement are selected as the constraints. The proposed method is shown to achieve an optimum design of raft–pile foundation efficiently and accurately. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
47.
Geomaterials such as sand and clay are highly heterogeneous multiphase materials. Nonlocality (or a characteristic length scale) in modeling geomaterials based on the continuum theory can be associated with several factors, for instance, the physical interactions of material points within finite distance, the homogenization or smoothing process of material heterogeneity, and the particle or problem size-dependent mechanical behavior (eg, the thickness of shear bands) of geomaterials. In this article, we formulate a nonlocal elastoplastic constitutive model for geomaterials by adapting a local elastoplastic model for geomaterials at a constant suction through the constitutive correspondence principle of the state-based peridynamics theory. We numerically implement this nonlocal constitutive model via the classical return-mapping algorithm of computational plasticity. We first conduct a one-dimensional compression test of a soil sample at a constant suction through the numerical model with three different values of the nonlocal variable (horizon) δ. We then present a strain localization analysis of a soil sample under the constant suction and plane strain conditions with different nonlocal variables. The numerical results show that the proposed nonlocal model can be used to simulate the inception and propagation of shear banding as well as to capture the thickness of shear bands in geomaterials at a constant suction. 相似文献
48.
Shohre Didari Shahrokh Zand-Parsa Ali Reza Sepaskhah Ali Akbar Kamgar-Haghighi Davar Khalili 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(1-2):159-171
In this research, suitability of different kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) methods in estimating occurrence date of frost was evaluated. Data included minimum daily air temperature values from 27 meteorological stations of Fars province in southern Iran from 18 to 45 years. Data ranges of 0 to ?1.5, ?1.5 to ?3 and below ?3°C were considered as mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Starting with the first day of autumn, iso-occurrence days for the frost intensities and occurrence probabilities (25%, 50%, 75% and 90%) were estimated using ordinary kriging, cokriging, residual kriging type 1 (RK1), residual kriging type 2 (RK2), universal kriging and IDW methods. In these models, the errors of estimated frost intensities at different probabilities were lowest in the RK2 model, but lack of establishment of spatial structure due to long distance between stations caused the predictions not to be acceptable in some cases. In a proposed method (modified inverse distance weighted, MIDW), the trend between the first and last days of frost occurrence with earth elevation was removed, and the reminder values were estimated by (IDW) method. Although, the errors for estimated frost dates by MIDW and RK2 methods were the same, but the MIDW method did not have the spatial establishment shortcoming. Furthermore, the simplicity and practicality of the MIDW method makes it a reasonable selection. 相似文献
49.
A new data‐mining approach is presented for modelling of the stress–strain and volume change behaviour of unsaturated soils considering temperature effects. The proposed approach is based on the evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR), which unlike some other data‐mining techniques, generates a transparent and structured representation of the behaviour of systems directly from raw experimental (or field) data. The proposed methodology can operate on large quantities of data in order to capture nonlinear and complex relationships between contributing variables. The developed models allow the user to gain a clear insight into the behaviour of the system. Unsaturated triaxial test data from the literature were used for development and verification of EPR models. The developed models were also used (in a coupled manner) to produce the entire stress path of triaxial tests. Comparison of the EPR model predictions with the experimental data revealed the robustness and capability of the proposed methodology in capturing and reproducing the constitutive thermomechanical behaviour of unsaturated soils. More importantly, the capability of the developed models in accurately generalizing the predictions to unseen data cases was illustrated. The results of a sensitivity analysis showed that the models developed from data are able to capture and represent the physical aspects of the unsaturated soil behaviour accurately. The merits and advantages of the proposed methodology are also discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
50.
In many natural environments, such as in underwater hot springs and hydrothermal vents, thermal gradients are accompanied with changes in the concentration of chemical compounds transported to the seawater, causing the so-called double-diffusive, mixed convection. To study the physical scenarios in such systems, a vertical channel filled with a porous medium saturated with saline water is considered. The motion in the sediment-filled channel is induced by two buoyancy forces and an external pressure gradient, similar to the situation in a vent with an upward flow direction. The fluid flow has been modeled by an extended Darcy model, and the flow instability mechanisms have been studied numerically. The linear stability analysis is performed considering a wide range of Darcy number (Da = 10−5 -10−8). The instability boundary curve showed three distinct dynamic regimes: (i) Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T), (ii) log-log non-linear variation, and (iii) log-log linear variation. The domain of different regimes were sensitive to external pressure gradient as well as permeability. Similar to cross-diffusive natural convection in pure viscous fluids, a linear relationship between logarithmic absolute values of critical thermal Rayleigh number (∣RaT∣) and solute Rayleigh number (RaC) is found in the third regime. Based on the permeability, for any solute Rayleigh number (RaC), there existed a minimum value of Reynolds number (Re), below which R-T type of instability appeared. Above this minimum value, the instability was due to two buoyancy forces, known as buoyant instability. Simulations of secondary flow via energy analysis demonstrated the development of complex dynamics at the critical state in all three regimes characterized by transition of multi to uni-cellular structures and vice verse. 相似文献